Who’s the best Kentucky Derby contender?
In case you’re wondering who the best three year old horse is, let’s take an objective look. The speed figures will tell you all about how Quality Road and Dunkirk were fast as cheetahs in the Florida Derby, and how I Want Revenge freaked out in the Gotham. These are fair analyses, but in this study we will throw out speed figures and fractions and the like, and concentrate on simple logic and class.
Having mentioned him already, let’s start with Quality Road, and examine his competition. In his recent Florida Derby romp he beat Dunkirk. No other Kentucky Derby contenders were involved, although I still believe Theregoesjojo could have been a contender had he a.) Raced outside of Gulfstream Park, and b.) Not had such a silly name. No offense to Funny Cide.
It needs to be mentioned that last year’s Derby champion Big Brown also beat nobody in his Florida Derby romp. Trainer James Jerkens is looking to take the same path. Although Big Brown’s quarter crack did not develop until after the Belmont, Quality Road is on the fast track with that one. The crack was declared minor but is a major concern for a Derby competitor.
Todd Pletcher tried to follow Big Brown’s exact footsteps with Dunkirk by winning the Florida Derby in his 3rd lifetime start. Dunkirk has beaten nobody other than the aforementioned Theregoesjojo, but it was a nice try in the Florida Derby. Dunkirk’s two previous starts resulted in victories in an allowance and a maiden race. We need some more credentials.
I Want Revenge is a compelling name for a horse running for The Roses. His sire was Stephen Got Even, son of Belmont Winner AP Indy, so another furlong should not be a problem. However, neither AP Indy nor any of his progeny have won the Derby. After failing to win two graded stakes races over polytrack in CA, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped this horse to the Aqueduct in NY to run in the Gotham, where he freaked out and won by eight lengths under young upstart Joe Talamo.
Talamo followed that up with an incredible performance in the Wood, also at Aqueduct, where despite breaking poorly and finding himself walled behind horses for most of the race, I Want Revenge ran down rivals late in the stretch, where he finally found a hole, to win by 1.5 lengths. West Side Bernie managed second, after being passed by the winner in mid stretch as if he were standing still.
Papa Clem, by Smart Strike, shipped over to the southeast after running second in the RB Lewis G2 over the Santa Anita polytrack. Even though he failed to come close to catching Friesan Fire over a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby, the trip proved to be worthwhile. In his next race, the Gary Stute trainee managed to capture the Arkansas Derby under Rafael Bejarano, beating Larry Jones’ Old Fashioned, a previous Derby contender.
Trainer Larry Jones decided to give the month of April off to Friesan Fire, satisfied with his dominant performances in the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. In addition the AP Indy colt continues to improve with every start for rider Gabriel Saez. The only question left is whether he will take to the dirt at Churchill Downs in the same way as he did at New Orleans. Recall that he beat Papa Clem in his Louisiana Derby victory in the slop.
This brings us to the west coast dominator, Pioneer of the Nile, who has done nothing but win his past four races for Bob Baffert, all Grade 1 and 2. The last three were won over the polytrack at Santa Anita, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby several times, and would not surprise any reasonable man if he won it again.
Pioneer of the Nile was sired by Empire Maker, who despite his sincerest efforts could not beat Funny Cide in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a late-closing second. He did however defeat Funny Cide in the Wood G1, and later in the Belmont G1, both over sloppy tracks in New York.
Perhaps the most important point I can make about Pioneer of the Nile, is that he is the last man standing in Southern California. I Want Revenge failed to beat him on the polytrack, and shipped off to New York where he has since dominated. Papa Clem also escaped his shadow by traveling to New Orleans to stamp his Derby ticket.
Empire Maker has proven to be a top sire, and his competitive index is currently ranked #1. This means that his offspring by the same mares that other sires have been bred to, have won more. Mr. Baffert can not be disputed as a top trainer, and jockey Garrett Gomez has won all four of his races aboard Pioneer.
There is a good chance that we haven’t seen the best of this colt yet. Pioneer’s running style is enviable. Instead of getting in pace duels or lollygagging, he manages to rate near the front if the pace is slow, and later if the pace is fast. Give Gomez some credit here as well.
Pioneer’s first run on dirt could be devastating for competitors in the same way as I Want Revenge’s Gotham. Empire Maker’s offspring have also won a higher percentage on dirt than on polytrack. This looks to be the first great progeny of Empire Maker, the one that we’ve been waiting for.
Now that I’ve gone on and on about my obvious top pick, it bears mentioning another. Win Willy found a surface he liked in the off-track at Oaklawn, dominating the Rebel G2 in his first career stakes race at Oaklawn Park with a great closing move. He returned to reality in the Louisiana, closing well to finish 4th, three lengths behind Papa Clem.
Win Willy’s sire Monarchos is known for the wet track ability of his progeny, and if Louisville gets any of the thunderstorms that are predicted all week, his chances improve. It should be noted that Monarchos became the second horse to win the Kentucky Derby in less than two minutes, the second-fastest time ever, behind only Secretariat. Win Willy’s big question marks are the relatively unknown trainer Robertson and rider Berry.
If we are to believe the transitive property applies three year old horses, the answer becomes a bit different than what you would obtain by analyzing speed figures. Let’s throw out the rest of the batch who haven’t beaten anyone, and go with these as our chief competitors.
Here’s how I rank my Derby Dozen:
- Pioneer of the Nile Won G1 Santa Anita, G2 San Felipe, G2 RB Lewis, G1 Cashcall Futurity
- I Want Revenge Won G1 Wood, G3 Gotham, 3rd in G2 Lewis, 2nd G1 Cashcall
- Friesan Fire Won G2 La Derby, G3 Risen Star, G3 Lecomte
- Quality Road Won G1 Fla Derby, G2 Fountain of Youth
- Papa Clem Won G2 Ark Derby, 2nd G2 La Derby, 2nd G2 RB Lewis
- Win Willy Won G2 Rebel, 4th G2 Ark Derby
- Square Eddie 3rd G2 Lexington, 2nd G3 San Rafael, 2nd G1 Brdrs Futurity
- Desert Party 2nd G2 UAE Derby, Won G3 UAE Guineas
- General Quarters Won G1 Bluegrass, G3 SF Davis
- Dunkirk 2nd G1 Fla Derby
- West Side Bernie 2nd G1 Wood, 3rd G3 Holy Bull
- Musket Man Won G2 Illinois Derby, G3 Tampa Bay Derby
Notes on other contenders:
Square Eddie by Smart Strike (sire of horse of the year Curlin), trained by Doug O’neill, has yet to race on dirt. Looked great on past three polytrack races but could improve on dirt.
Desert Party by Street Cry (sire of Derby winner Street Sense) has trained in the desert, which I’m not a big fan of. However, he has a great closing move and strong pedigree. If Saeed bin Suroor ever had a legitimate Derby contender, this is it. It’s possible this horse could have moved way up the rankings by prepping in the states. Stablemate Regal Ransom beat him in the UAE, but Desert Party was closing hard as he had in the previous two races in Dubai, which he won. It looked like more of a slow pace fluke than anything else. It’s really hard to ignore this contender but I would have liked to see him prep in the US.
General Quarters needs to be a little more consistent but has turned in some solid efforts.
Musket Man won the Illinois and Tampa Bay while rating behind slow paces.
Quality Road may have ranked higher if it weren’t for the quarter crack. We just can’t ignore that injury, even if it’s said to be minor.
Another chapter in this series will be more geared toward speed and performance figures and thus will be completely different. The last two years, speed averages won, but we have more class in this field than last year.